MOST NEWSPAPER STORIES ARE SPECULATION
What's new?!
At the moment Dave King is the talk of the town. He certainly can't and won't be overlooked in any sale, his investment in Murray Sports the company which effectively owns part of Rangers on behalf of the Murray Group (the other larger part is owned direct by MIH) means he is certainly a player if not the guy who will be the Chairman when the dust settles.
Negotiations such as these are delicate - they will be being conducted by people with no interest in football and working to strict orders from their master to squeeze every penny. The idea that some banker is phoning up Chick Young & Co. to say 'so-and-so is offering 60p in the pound' is ludicrous. 60p in the pound for what? The debt? Share price?
For the most part papers are working in the dark in areas far beyond their understanding. We saw a fine example of this a few years ago when traynor announced Murray had given Rangers and extra £15million to spend complete with lists of possible signing targets. In fact the revolving £15million credit facility was there simply to cover any going over the overdraft limit.
ARE THE BANK RUNNING THE CLUB WALTER?
Technically no but in real life of course they are. It might not be that the bank is directing every purchase of players socks but certainly every purchase above a certain level will require their okay. They may not have taken the pen from David Murray's hand but they certainly have the chequebook under lock and key.
The bank are bastards! - Well, that's their job. What do you expect?
THE BANK ARE PLAYING UNDER NEW RULES
The bank probably have another year in a window of opportunity in which to bin bad debt. If they do so just now neither the city nor the government will blink an eye. As with every business under their care, they will be looking at the £700million debt and 120+ companies of the Murray International Holdings and working out what they can expect to be paid back in the short-term and looking at the asset base to see what can be flogged off should the need arise. Murray has a vast landbank in west Edinburgh and that may be brought into play.
It's such a vast corporation that much talk of it is simply playing with numbers and speculation. Even the accounts only give you a snapshot of how things stood the year previously. But the bank will now have a very firm idea of what it's strengths and weaknesses are and how they propose to get their money out - long-term and short-term.
Trying to influence the bank with the threat of a boycott is problematic. Bad publicity yes - but in these economically straitened times how many Bears will be either willing or able to move accounts, mortgages or insurance policies around?
How will this impact on Rangers? If they decide to play very hard ball then they could insist on January sales of Bougherra, Davis, Mendes and McGregor simply to tide over the club through the final months of the season when income is at it's lowest and before season ticket and hospitality renewals go out. Ibrox itself is not a readily realiseable asset but Murray Park is about the only hidden value on the balance sheet and it would be a plum candidate for sale.
HOW WILL THE SALE PLAY OUT?
There are a number of scenarios. The main motive force is the bank. But with Rangers being valued at £79million on the Murray International balance sheet means they will not rush to force a sale as the consequences of selling at a lower price will ripple through the group accounts.
Those wishing to purchase will have to pay something for the shares and also prove to the bank they can handle the debt - either with more cash or a coherent business plan.
The sums of money are so vast that the decision on the sale will be, as stated previously, made by people with no interest in Scotland or Scottish football. I suspect their judgement will depend as much on how the sale effects Murray International as it does Rangers.
A deal will be done. It will be a tough one - that's the legacy of not enough fans heeding warnings early enough. Rangers will go on but the form is in the air right now.
TOIL, SWEAR, BLOOD AND TEARS
Those are the words of Winston Churchill but they are also the legacy of David Murray.
It is a legacy of years of hardship ahead. Make no mistake. No Laudrups, no Gazzas, no Goughs. We will pay for the recklessness.
Whoever the new owner is I suspect we shall be on a bread and water diet for the next five to ten years - small-name signings and loan deals. But the club will survive.
Make no mistake great sacrifices will be called for - fans are the goose that lays the golden egg, the single biggest investor in RFC, and any new regime will come calling asking for help. This time fans better be prepared to have a shopping list of reforms that is practical and meaningful.