The 12.55 at Warwick seems to present the hard to place Kelrev with a winning opportunity. It looks quite a tight race but it should be for the money. Kelrev’s tendency to front run can help him win this.
The 1.45 at Kempton looks nailed on for Gold Medallist. Philip Hobbs reckons this is his best chance of a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, so given that he should win this OK.
The 2.20 at Kempton see Made In Japan try to redeem his reputation as one of the best novice chasers around after a tame 3rd last time. The competition isn’t as strong here so he should be OK if putting in a clear round.
The 3.0 at Wetherby looks an interesting little race where Royal Emperor and Ryalux both hold winning chances. However, if Wain Mountain runs here he will have ground conditions to suit and I would expect him to win.
The Totesport Chase 3.10 Warwick is the big betting race of the day and Wain Mountain is also declared here. This will be a marathon slog in the mud and with his light weight I would expect him to win here if this race is chosen for him. If he doesn’t run here then it could pay to focus on another couple of lightly weighted individuals in Fashion Monty and Baron Windrush with slight preference for the latter.
Possibly the most interesting race today is the 2.05 at Warwick, the Pertemps Qualifier. As horses only need to run in these qualifiers to qualify for the final at the Festival many trainers don’t like to show their hand fully. Therefore about half the field won’t be trying. One for whom this qualifier makes no difference is Strong Flow who will be tackling the Gold Cup itself at Cheltenham.
The stable, however, may not want to over try him on his comeback, especially over hurdles. If he is a decent price though, I’d have to back him on his class alone. If you take him out of the equation then the two I like most are Celtic Son, who has run up a sequence already this season and the very game Carly’s Quest who was successful recently in the mud at Chepstow.
WAR 12.55 KELREV
WAR 1.30 CONTROL MAN
KEMP 1.45 GOLD MEDALLIST
KEMP 2.20 MADE IN JAPAN
WETH 3.00 WAIN MOUNTAIN (IF ABSENT RYALUX)
WAR 3.10 WAIN MOUNTAIN (IF ABSENT BARON WINDRUSH)
WAR 2.05 STRONG FLOW