Beat The Bookie

Last updated : 29 November 2002 By Grandmaster Suck

Odds & Sods - It is always possible for careful punters to keep the odds in our favour and thus cut the losses if not quite staying in constant profit.

Experience teaches us that reducing form to a logical format can help increase the accuracy of our forecasting. But even the most careful application of mathematical functions within the emotional indifference of

Computer analysis, the accuracy level rarely reaches beyond the 70% mark in reality.

This percentage mark is however good news for the single bet punters as your weekly forecasts only require 50% correct over any season to stay well in profit. Providing you avoid odds-on muggings of course.

It has been pointed out that over 80% of the horse racing payouts at Mr Hills & Co, are in fact single bets. But hey, most of us like a bit fun with our footy forecasts, and so look to a method that combines smart investment with modest gambling. Thus the weekly selected foursome over the past seven weeks has produced 1 treble followed by six doubles in-a-row. At some point this could yield a complete foursome or a total wipe-out.

More serious (and more successful) punters tend to limit their selections to singles and the occasional double at the most. Those looking for a fun bet with a good (albeit occasional) chance of a decent return may find betting on all the trebles and the foursome more rewarding.

So to this weeks Fab Four:

St Johnstone v FALKIRK @ 6/4

As predicted last week, the Bairns dropped to 2nd place against on - form Clyde, but as this was only their 2nd defeat of the season expect them to get back on track when they visit Perth. St Johnstone are 4th in Division 1 courtesy of their winning ways back in August. Since then have won only 3 out of the last ten matches.

Gretna v EAST FIFE (A) 1/1

The third division leaders should have no problems disposing of struggling newcomers Gretna in 6th place who have now gone 8 straight games without a win. On the other hand the rampant Fifers have lost only two matches throughout the season. Their visit to Dumfriesshire should present them with few problems in consolidating their pole position.

Montrose v ALBION ROVERS @ 1/1

Breathing down the necks of the Fifers, are the 2nd - placed Rovers who take a competent enough away win record to Montrose. Their 8th - placed hosts can only boast of 1 win in the last 10 games. Expect that to be one win out of 11 on Saturday night. They will be dancing in the streets of Albion tonight, as they apparently say in Coatbridge.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST v Ipswich @ 11/10

Forest have just one defeat from the past 13 games to their credit, however their poor away record and a plethora of draws have kept them at 3rd place. They have Ipswich as visitors today whose away record reads, W3 L3 D3, but the 15 team - gap between themselves and their hosts should prove far too much for them to overcome.

Suggested multiple bet: Perm all four trebles plus the fourfold at £1 per unit = £5.00 total stake

Falkirk\E.Fife\Albion returns £10.00

Falkirk\Albion\Forest returns £10.50

Falkirk\E.Fife\Forest returns £10.50

E.Fife\Albion\Forest returns £8.40

All four correct returns £21.00 + all four trebles = £60.40 Singles and doubles take your pick from above or from the ŒTop Ten¹ evens

and above offered below.

Top Ten - Best Of The Rest:

EPL - Middlesboro (A) 6/5. Div 1 - Reading (A) 7/5. Preston (A) 11/4.

Div 2 - Cheltenham (H) 6/4. Colchester (H) 6/5. Stockport (H) 1/1.

Div 3 - Darlington (H) 11/10. Oxford (H) 1/1. Wrexham (H) 6/5.

SPL - Dunfermline (H) 1/1.

Prices qouted from Wm Hills.