As the Stuttgart game draws near it is now time to stop the talking, speculating and dreaming about the Champions League and time to get on with the action.
The draw this year has been reasonably fair to Rangers; we've had more glamorous opposition in recent times but we have always pulled up a little short in the new CL format. So what can we expect or hope for? Well, in short we must aspire for qualification for the second stage. The quality of our own squad and the strength of our rivals may prove that to be beyond us but if we are to qualify we probably need to do two things: improve our home record and get at least nine points.
Since the Champions League format was changed, in season 1999-2000, to eight groups of four, teams have successfully qualified for stage two on 64 occasions. Of that number, only two have passed to the next round with seven points. Rangers, as we well remember, were placed in the Uefa Cup in season 2000/01 after amassing eight points: of those teams who have collected eight points only six from thirteen, less than 50%, have succeeded in reaching the next round.
On fifteen different occasions teams have accumulated nine points, and of those only five did not qualify, most of them losing out to another team with nine points; one of the exceptions being another team from Glasgow in season 2001/02, eliminated by a team from Oporto. Although it is likely, nine points may not absolutely guarantee qualification and it is worth noting that in the last four seasons, only once would nine points have enabled qualification in Man Utd's group - last season.
Rangers have fared poorly in home matches in the CL, whichever way you wish to look at it. Even before the rebranding of the competition from the old European Cup, and the introduction of eight groups in 1999, the statistics are sad. Post 1992 campaigns have witnessed nine pre qualifiers for the premier tournament, with six home wins, two draws, a loss and four aggregate losses.
In the Champions Cup/League itself in this period the home record is as follows: played 12, won three, drew five, lost four. Our home games against Stuttgart, Man Utd and Panathinaikos are crucial and this type of record has to improve. Winning a quarter of your games at home is never going to be enough, but we will also need to take something away from home to qualify, lest we be stung with the same fate as befell Celtic and their 100% home, 0% away record of 2001/02.
Stats can be manipulated but it appears clear to me that if we are to qualify then we must seek to take at least seven points at home and to sneak something on our travels. I'm not wholly confident our players are capable of such heroics but I fervently hope we can do it. The last thing we need is another 'heroic' failure.
MDC